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[ 洋図書 ] Fortune tellers : the story of America's first economic forecasters /

Walter A. Friedman. -- Princeton University Press, -- [2014], --

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ISBN 0691159114 (hbk. ; alk. paper)
ISBN13桁 9780691159119 (hbk. ; alk. paper)
テキストの言語 英語                  
分類：NDC10版 332.53
個人著者標目 Friedman, Walter A.,
生没年等 1962-
本タイトル Fortune tellers :
タイトル関連情報 the story of America's first economic forecasters /
著者名 Walter A. Friedman.
出版地・頒布地 Princeton :
出版者・頒布者名 Princeton University Press,
出版年・頒布年 [2014],
数量 xi, 273 pages :
他の形態的事項 illustrations ;
大きさ 25 cm
書誌注記 Includes bibliographical references (pages [217]-260) and index.
内容注記 Roger W. Babson : the rule of past patterns : "The fundamental law of 'action reaction'" -- Irving Fisher : the economy as a mathematical model : "The velocity of money" -- John Moody : the bright light of transparency : "An aggregation of over 440 large industrial, franchise and transportation trusts" -- Gallery of business and forecasting charts -- C.J. Bullock and Warren Persons : the Harvard ABC chart : "The statistician ... attempts to find a specific analogy existing in an orderly universe" -- Wesley Mitchell and Herbert Hoover : forecasting as policy : "If we could foresee the business cycle, there would be none" -- Visions of the future.
要約、抄録、注釈等 "The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C.J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself"--Provided by publisher.
一般件名 Economic forecasting -- History. -- United States
Business forecasting -- History. -- United States
地名件名 United States.
USA.
資料情報1 『Fortune tellers : the story of America's first economic forecasters /』　Walter A. Friedman.　Princeton University Press,　[2014], （所蔵館：中央　 請求記号：F/332.5/F91/F　 資料コード：7107739664）
URL https://catalog.library.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/winj/opac/switch-detail.do?lang=ja&bibid=1352021632

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