資料詳細

  • 1 件中、 1 件目

[ 洋図書 ] The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail -- but some don't /

Nate Silver. -- Penguin Press, -- 2012. --

所蔵

所蔵は 1 件です。

所蔵館 所蔵場所 資料区分 請求記号 資料コード 所蔵状態 資料の利用
配架日 協力貸出 利用状況 返却予定日 資料取扱 予約数 付録注記 備考
中央 書庫 一般洋図書 F/417.0/S58/S 7113080200 Digital BookShelf
2020/12/15 可能 利用可   0

Eメールによる郵送複写申込みは、「東京都在住」の登録利用者の方が対象です。

    • 統合検索
      都内図書館の所蔵を
      横断検索します。       類似資料 AI Shelf
      この資料に類似した資料を
      AIが紹介します。

ページの先頭へ

資料詳細 閉じる

ISBN 159420411X
ISBN13桁 9781594204111
テキストの言語 英語                  
分類：NDC10版 417
個人著者標目 Silver, Nate,
生没年等 1978-
本タイトル The signal and the noise :
タイトル関連情報 why so many predictions fail -- but some don't /
著者名 Nate Silver.
出版地・頒布地 New York :
出版者・頒布者名 Penguin Press,
出版年・頒布年 2012.
数量 534 pages :
他の形態的事項 illustrations ;
大きさ 25 cm.
書誌注記 Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index.
内容注記 A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you.
要約、抄録、注釈等 The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction.,Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
一般件名 Forecasting.
Forecasting -- Methodology.
資料情報1 『The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail -- but some don't /』　Nate Silver.　Penguin Press,　2012. （所蔵館：中央　 請求記号：F/417.0/S58/S　 資料コード：7113080200）
URL https://catalog.library.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/winj/opac/switch-detail.do?lang=ja&bibid=1352043211

ページの先頭へ