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[ 洋図書 ] Radical uncertainty : decision-making beyond the numbers /

John Kay, Mervyn King. -- W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., -- [2020], -- First edition.

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中央 2F 一般洋図書 F/331.0/K23/R 7113639181 配架図 Digital BookShelf
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ISBN 1324004770 (hardcover)
ISBN13桁 9781324004776 (hardcover)
無効なISBN等 9781324004783 (electronic publication)
テキストの言語 英語                  
分類：NDC10版 331
個人著者標目 Kay, J. A.
姓名の完全形 (John Anderson)
本タイトル Radical uncertainty :
タイトル関連情報 decision-making beyond the numbers /
著者名 John Kay, Mervyn King.
版表示 First edition.
出版地・頒布地 New York, NY :
出版者・頒布者名 W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.,
出版年・頒布年 [2020],
数量 xvi, 528 pages :
他の形態的事項 illustrations ;
大きさ 24 cm.
書誌注記 Includes bibliographical references (pages [469]-507) and index.
内容注記 Introduction: The nature of uncertainty. The unknowable future -- Puzzles and mysteries -- Radical uncertainty is everywhere -- The lure of probabilities. Thinking with probabilities -- A forgotten dispute -- Ambiguity and vagueness -- Probability and optimization -- Making sense of uncertainty. Rationality in a large world -- Evolution and decision-making -- The narrative paradigm -- Uncertainty, probability and the law -- Good and bad narratives -- Telling stories through numbers -- Telling stories through models -- Rationality and communication -- Challenging narratives -- Economies and uncertainty. The world of finance -- Radical uncertainty, insurance and investment -- (Mis)understanding macroeconomics -- The use and misuse of models -- Living with uncertainty. Practical knowledge -- Adapting to radical uncertainty -- Embracing uncertainty -- Appendix: Axioms of choice under uncertainty.
要約、抄録、注釈等 "In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter. Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior. Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands-the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers"--Provided by publisher.
著者標目 King, Mervyn A.
一般件名 Economics -- Psychological aspects.
Consumer behavior.
資料情報1 『Radical uncertainty : decision-making beyond the numbers /』First edition.　John Kay, Mervyn King.　W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.,　[2020], （所蔵館：中央　 請求記号：F/331.0/K23/R　 資料コード：7113639181）
URL https://catalog.library.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/winj/opac/switch-detail.do?lang=ja&bibid=1352047044

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